PROBE hype!!!

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PROBE hype!!!

Post by handsumSnail » Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:24 pm

Season 5 Probe Playoffs

Behind the scenes

So yesterday we had Probe quarterfinals played, and it was a thoroughly enjoyable experience. Cool layouts, instant-replays, fastest ever game highlights, co-casters for certain series, casters filling time with showmatches... overall amazing production value! So big shoutouts to everyone involved, and especially Val & Rig! As for league management, the decision to make it two Sundays looks to be the right one, since only one team had attendance issues, whereas most games had 10-12 players showing up - quite an achievement in itself! Looking back at season 4 and how DuckHunter&CO won a 3v4, I'm kinda dissapointed Purple Jesus Advocats (LGK) didn't at least give it a try, but giving a free win is understandable when looking at how season devolved for them. But more on that later.



Handsum Tiny Murlocs vs Magetbashi Tribe

10 goals / 31 shots == 32% shot efficiency
139 passes == 70 per game
2x 53% possesion time
4 goals Ilan & Eiki, 2 goals bLame
85% save ratio for Lazor
2x MVP for Ilan

3 goals / 21 shots == 14% shot efficiency
103 passes == 52 per game
2x 47% possesion time
2 goals Kekster, 1 for Agara
67% save ratio for OsuGod

Going into the game I've put Magets team among 3 favorites to win it all. With 9 players eligible for playoffs, including R3 Tubby & R4 Kekster, I felt my team getting to play vs last placed finisher in regular season was actually a punishment, instead of it being a reward for a very strong probe showing. Having Ozy in net (around 80% season average) and possibly Tom would make them so scary, with bench consisting of guys like Lavrans, Kwakster or even Klendaju. Pretty crazy for Probe to be honest.

Facing a possible early exit, I've decided that if we must go out, we should do it with a bang. So i tried to rile up isKek and his troops in the official channel, offering them discounted lube items on Amazon and so on. Now I feel horrible about it though, cuz Kekster remained respectful (and arguably disconnected) through the whole ordeal. They even wished us luck in semifinals, only team I saw show that level of sportsmanship so far. So yeah, even though no rivalry will be born out of this, at least I tried to provide some extra entertainment, and I hope nobody took offense. :mrgreen: :lol:

When first game started, it became clear Tom and Tubby will not show which propelled us in status of favorites, therefore my focus turned on providing a strong tactical game, nothing too fancy, just safe solid legit. Tiny Murlocs delivered, we didn't overextend once and even though MGT had 12 shots, Lazor finished the game at 100% save percentage. Only guy to put their team on the scoreboard was actually Ilan, with a half-court pass back while Lazor was typing (typekill into owngoal FTW).

After such a convincing win, complacency became an issue and therefore I wanted to rotate even more than I did first game to prevent possible sloppiness. However Eiki was so determined to prove himself, I had to postpone subs a bit. I mention it to emphasize how good his mindset is in these high pressure games. Not only to have balls to stand up to your owner but then to top it all of with a hat-trick is how you fucking do it! Champion mentality -> ...

I'm so glad to still see hunger in those guys, because we're probably the team that practiced most than all other teams combined, and I was legitimately worried ppl would burn out - season is sooooo long after all. But everyone remained motivated, and that's something I have to acknowledge and give credit where its due - Ilan (and previously Lazor) played a huge part in it. I also have to thank Logik for taking my draft team and shaping Jok3ies around it, his help has proved invaluable. Just 12 hours before playoffs my guys won a 3v4 vs DuckAcademy in Clan League, and it "fixed" two biggest issues I had - Lazor not feeling confident in goalie anymore, and my RAMMING SQAD aka Eiffy playing it slow.

Game 2 we put 6 goals in, but conceded 3, and upped the pace a bit since MGT crew was not adapting to our playstyle at all. We never went under 3 goals difference and overall did very well. As for MGT, I think the games should've been closer than they were and I'm gonna explain why. Basically, Kekster had two options after 0-4 in game1. One, as captain and most experienced player he could've played defense for his team (which was basically non existent most of the time). Two, if he felt strongly about losing offensive potential and wanted to remain front, not using Yellowkids at all was IMO a big mistake (Valenz thought so too!). Yellow in goalie would release Ozy in defense and I honestly think that would bring them some stability. Not saying they would win, but they would at least concede a lot less. As is even me breaking the rythm of my guys with constant subs left us in comfortable lead. However it's not really fair to criticize Kekster since he shouldn't have been put in this position in the first place. If Maget didnt fuck this team over so hard, I promise you these playoffs would look a lot different!

To finish it off, I have to say that facing a weakened MGT team provided 2 things for us: One, we got YeuYeu to play. It took a lot of effort so to speak but in the end he did right by us. Sunday+Sunday and only bo3 first week (so basically 2 hours of commitment) was extremely important in this regard and had it been scheduled in a different way YeuYeu would've been just another Saturday victim, especially considering big exam he's taking as we speak. Two, we didn't have to reveal much at all. By having a constant lead we were never forced to activate our plan for what happens when we go down, and I bet constant subs and rotations (such as Ilan or Eiki as defenders, or bLame in basically all 3 positions) should further shroud strategic aspect of what we trained for playoffs.

I think I'll end it here for now. Series 2 & 3 recaps are coming as soon as i make myself some coffe!

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Re: PROBE hype!!!

Post by handsumSnail » Tue Apr 04, 2017 8:39 am

Purple Jesus Advocats vs Coftea Naga Wizards

Okay, so as much as I praised Logik before, now it's time for mild criticism. Looking at what I wrote at start of the season:
His Probe star is possibly RIP (and if not, it can cause even more problems maybe with his R4), he has two players that could cause issues within the team (no need to go into details just yet i guess), but not to the point where it's not manageable if he acts swiftly. In that case he has one of Probe teams with biggest depth in my opinion.
I'd argue Logik didn't respond properly, or maybe at all. Fact is, Strymx took over for Destro in Main who in response AFKed, but then took the higher road and showed whenever they were missing players (so basically every week), even playing out a 2v4 in Probe. Come playoffs, not having Logik around to inspire and/or fix attendance, it's understandable why they decided against 3v4 and just gave away a free win. As I see it, Logik could have had 3 players online, and then had to worry if Destro will play or not. However, he was neither online, nor did Destro make any kinds of problems for him despite the lack of leadership. So the responsibility should solely fall on Owner here.

I'm very well aware Logik has Spartan attitude towards probies (back with your shield, or on it!) even publicly stating "it's not his job to hold their hands forever", but looking at his draft, it's such a massive loss of potential. He drafted better than most skill/position wise: Lexaya or even Xeirex in net, TheHunter as last man behind (aside from deadpool only probie that actually enjoys defender role, and does it well - very much overlooked IMO), then DuckHunter in support, and Destro front is overall amazing for Probe. Hell I'd bet on them. Only problem is the human factor. DH had to be insta-traded out due to SQUIK/TUPL rivalry, Destro was drafted a round higher than he should've been if LGK was confident in influencing Strymx not to disappear as he usually does, Xeirex (I assume!!) didn't get enough incentive to show at all even tho he's being a monster in net lately, and Hunter became a dad which rekt his activity. A bit of mismanagement, a huge chunks of bad luck, and they went from a #1 in Probe (first 3 weeks) to the saddest story of Season 5. At least in Probe, MGT still true king of disappointment Kappa :lol:

I hope Logik wont take offense and sees this as constructive criticism, because I'm not denying he did better than me on some fronts - namely giving schedule 7 days in advance and so on. I also understand he never received any love or special treatment while he was a pubber/probie (it was probably the other way around, a lot of ppl hated philou's playstyle with a passion) so he's just doing his thing, but he should understand most people don't have his drive and will to improve, and they in fact need their hands held when they go competitive. So yeah, very sad about this.

As for Coftea, two things are important. One, they accepted Mark be excluded from rules (as a midseason draft he was missing games to be eligible) and showed a lot of confidence by doing so. Two, they were missing Haldire, their best goalie. I won't go into Mark "drama" in depth, but basically, most people argued rules are rules, and if he's not eligible, rival owner accepting to bend them is not the way to go. I've argued those rules are put in place to prevent OP players from killing enjoyment in "true" probies just to get their egos stroked (shoutout to LingKing, worthless trash), and Mark is certainly not in that category, therefore if CFT allows, 4v4 is in everyone's best interest. Especially if you consider everything that was done so far scheduling wise was done to benefit attendance (hence why I got a bit salty for the all the BoooM hate, just because he was staying true to the course he choose weeks ago ppl unfairly implied bias). But yeah, this was just another example of me siding on the wrong side of things -> you should deffo elect me Commish S6 Kappa :lol:

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Re: PROBE hype!!!

Post by handsumSnail » Tue Apr 04, 2017 10:14 am

Gryphon Riders vs Warsong Stickmasters

8 goals / 29 shots == 28% shot efficiency
119 passes == 40 per game
45% 46% 44% possesion time over 3 games
4 goals Folero, 3 for Vulcan & 1 Vogin
61% save ratio for Pere

11 goals / 28 shots == 39% shot efficiency
128 passes == 43 per game
55% 54% 56% possesion time
10 goals Slayer, 1 for BeniBomB
72% save ratio for Elder
2x MVP for Slayer, MVP for Deadpool

Let's just put this out there: without their owner in goalie (83% season average), TMK probies were the weakest probe out there, and even with his carry only managed to finish 6th overall. Vogin probe however almost doubled their points, and names-wise I've put them in my top3 favorites to take it all. So please excuse the salt that's coming their way.

Basically, my first instinct was to be surprised when Vogin announced he's excited for Probe playoffs. I thought he rotates way more than its sometimes needed (I remember their MVP getting benched 3rd period for martin, just as one example, and then him proceeding to throw 2 goal lead by camping front), and that making MasuNinja ineligible puts them out of contention for the title. However I wrongly assumed Folero would also be taken into their Main and Pere would not be active (he was in fact 7/7 since midseason!), and have publicly withdrawn my prediction since realizing my mistake. The only weakness I felt with the activity and players at their disposal, would be their goalie. Which is barely a problem in comparison to most teams.

So you can imagine my shock when games started, and Pere was in net. In second part of the season he had 66% average (among, if not the lowest, out of goalies with >5 games), and had no place defending their goal, especially when you consider how strong he can be offensively. On top of that, due to attendance issues in previous season, Vogin collected as much as 10 out of 12 possible games in Main, most of them as goalie, resulting in 74% save percentage - a very deceiving number that doesn't reveal most of those games he would be missing 1 or 2 mainers, leaving him exposed and vulnerable to guys like Tyrion, Logik or Lime. Bottom line being, he did an amazing job in net.

However, facing Tomek team, I don't know if it was overconfidence, or just stubbornness, but he never opted in once. Not only that, he took over defence, which put Folero in support, and Vulcan front. Now, I realize it's very subjective, but I strongly feel about Folero excelling in defense, and even see Vulcan as more of a support than a strong finisher. So instead of Vogin - Folero - Vulcan - pere, they fielded basically all of their players outside their comfort zones. Yes, Folero did excellent, but you would expect that from a guy with such extensive experience in Main in any position he gets to play in Probe... My point is that they didn't play to their strengths, and their passing (or lack thereof) backs me up. It almost looked like a random priv where 4 guys play together for the first time. And that shouldn't have happened.

Saddest part for me is that despite making Masu ineligible, VOG team had tenkz, who murders ppl on EU when he shows. Getting past TMK would give them 7 days to get him online, which should be more than enough, and then we'd have a treat in form of Tits vs Vogin. But it ain't happenin'... So yeah, in summary, it's a squad with amazing names, probably the team that has by far the most experience in Main from previous seasons, but it just wasn't utilized properly. If you look at final statistics very carefully you will see both teams were very close in shots and passes, and that the goalie made the difference. In such a sloppy series, that was to be expected, but prompted no response, and deadpool&CO deserved all the success they got.

Speaking of deadpool, he is their true MVP and alongside Eiki probably the most improved player this season. Slayer carried like never before, and I mean that quite literally. Hunter, Slayer and Killer played for Ducks waaay back in Clan League Season 1 (what was it, like 3 years ago?) when they were undefeated until meeting Blackberries (Snail - Dwarf - Unforgiven - Jinx) and without disrespect I've never seen Slayer play as good as he did this Sunday, and obviously I had plenty of time to observe his progress. It prompted a smurfing joke that kinda escalated, but Tomek embraced it so sadly no drama there (maybe next time, dear twitch chat!)... However, drama happened over bitchwalking allegations by Folero, and I personally feel there is no merit in them at all. I would need to check the VOD but I'm fairly sure he AFKed and typed while his team was only 2 goals behind with plenty of time left, and IMO even if you feel very strongly about something you should never do that, or at least ask for a pause if you can't hold it in.

To finish off on a bright note, let me just leave this here:


#BANsolid :lol: :mrgreen:

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Re: PROBE hype!!!

Post by Kurt_58 » Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:05 pm

Top quality posts as per usual friend. I hope you know how great this quality of community content contribution is appreciated <3
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Re: PROBE hype!!!

Post by SwedishDoll » Tue Apr 04, 2017 2:41 pm

As the TUPL I am I can't resist... Ori as Supp? With ~3 passes per game :o

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Re: PROBE hype!!!

Post by handsumSnail » Tue Apr 04, 2017 3:49 pm

SwedishDoll wrote:As the TUPL I am I can't resist... Ori as Supp? With ~3 passes per game :o

i did say it is highly subjective. tbh he's not the most active player around, so i base my impression on around 4 to 7 games in past month, and thats me being generous - it was probably less. last season he played under 50% IIRC and quite frankly even those rare weeks he showed werent exactly memorable to the point where id make a mental note about him (Lime was goalie, deadpool defender, and Lazor striker in his team). what i did remember was him raging at me when i asked him not to juke through Tubby as last man behind, and that game he didnt play front (or back :lol: ) ---> ez support :mrgreen: 8-)
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Re: PROBE hype!!!

Post by OzyWho » Wed Apr 05, 2017 8:26 am

Handsum should start writing a blog. I think I'm not the only one who would read that. :O
We experience something, evaluate it, and then we feel an emotional response according to that evaluation.
Reason is emotion's slave and exists to rationalize emotional experience.
Rationalize emotional response in the present experience.
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Re: PROBE hype!!!

Post by handsumSnail » Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:34 am

Sylvanas Windrunner's Angry Tits vs Order of the Silver Hand

5 goals / 28 shots == 18% shot efficiency
92 passes == 46 per game
51% and 45% possession times
4 goals inLife 1 for great Marker
55% save ratio for Kamito

16 goals / 35 shots == 45% shot efficiency
99 passes == 50 per game
49% and 55% possession time
7 goals MLG 6 for Blaster 2 Resteral 1 Kurt
82% save ratio for KDE

I feel like I need to clear the air a bit here. I've not exactly kept it a secret I perceive AngryTits draft to be absolutely bonkers. With full attendance, he has 2 Main teams, and whatever is left can still be somewhat competitive in Probe. Fact he drafted 8 (eight) players with 50%, and only 2 with 90% expected attendance should have put them in a really good position playoffs wise (because those 50 percenters are very strong in regards to their respective rounds), but struggling in regular season - borderline not qualifying. But it didn't happen, they finished in second. Well, fifth if you don't look at combined, but that would just be looking for excuses to redeem my preseason predictions.

To give further context, I wanna remind ppl how it was even possible for TIT to get so much value so late. Moreso than in any other team, ppl overlooked his player not because of the %, but because of attendance notes and/or personal inquires. Mos told me "he hopes he doesn't kill a team this season", which implies huge periods of inactivity, basically not touching ZH for weeks on ends. Yet he made 8 apperances in Main and 6 in Probe. Granted, some of those probie games were in opposite roles (meaning overlap), but there were instances where he fielded, meaning out of 14 possible games, he's closer to >75% than (<)50%... which usually wouldn't be a big deal, but he's among EUs finest, and even opting in gives their probies close to 80% save percentage, which is huge. Bottom line being, even with him apparently playing on laptop and occasionally having bad ping, he helped his team to the point where not drafting him prior to mid-round4 makes other owners look foolish and reckless. But that's on us, don't misunderstand me pls.

Continuing on, you have guys like neX leaving a note "you'll be happy if i show up once" and locking goalie, and then doing 8 games in field, or Fisch saying he "will make couple (english word for 2 AFAIK) of games", but actually playing 6 times. Even Dalton who had full attendance changed from 50% to 75% in last couple of hours, which isn't a big deal since he ended up in R2, but could have potentially skewed drafts of guys who were not paying attention to Owner chat (where LMs announced the change). Finally, you just have some good luck mixed in all the "mess", where S4 completely-randomly-dissapearing-while-MVP ForeverGold went from overly optimistic 75% to full attendance, or robstr producing 4x 80% saves (3 in Main) even though Sunday scheduling was supposed to completely rekt him (by his own words "sports>zh", checked 4 times via PMs)...

On the other hand, in most teams, being in situation where you are missing Mainers would cause very noticeable shift in power, but if you combine robstr+Riggy apperances (10 games), his R3 goalie showing up only 2 times didn't make a dent (imo it made them stronger, sry Kamito), and R4 missing out 6 times was compsensated by having Fisch+ForeverGold with combined 5 apperances, which arguably weakened them only trivially, depending on how strong their opposition is (just based on the fact Forever is Probe MVP 2 seasons in a row, and Fisch has so much xp and skill). Elsewhere, guys with no extensive previous experience in Main would fill, and it would make a huge difference (well, in some teams at least). All of this slowly but surely adds up, and instead of dropping points, they continued on strong. So yeah, if you look past the math, there is nothing left to do but congratulate Tits on an amazing draft and even more impressive motivating skills. But, when somebody does such a good job, there is always salt. I was no exception to the rule, and I referred to his guys as quote 'nice "probe" team' on several occasions, etc.

To sum it all up, I acknowledge the fact there are other top players like Felix or Strymx having full attendance while showing 50% attendance expectancy (resulting in low draft), I'm just saying Tits went from the biggest gambler in history of EUDL to a guy we should be all taking notes from. And it's natural to downplay his success if you went extra-safe route, otherwise you'd have to admit he outdrafted you, and that's not an easy thing to do for some people. I'm doing it as we speak, even though it pains me, so I hope that much at least is clear.

Anyways, looking at playoffs eligibility, Kamito-Fisch-neX-ForeverGold looked so god damned scary, it finished off my list of top3 favorites (Tits, Maget, Vogin). Had they showed, I promise you not only would they sweep Probe, but Vogin Main would have a huge headache going into what is essentially a showmatch to motivate EUPL participants. This is why I don't understand Riggy calling me out on stream saying "cmon it will be a probe team, don't even try". Even more puzzling is why he used Italian accent whenever he read my lines from twitch chat. :mrgreen: :lol: Apparently he had information I did not, because in the end, neither ForeverGold nor Fisch played. inLife, a very decent goalie and a capable skater took the vacant spot, alongside Marker, whos description is exactly the same except he's from NA.

They faced Tyrion, who was plagued by attendance issues yet again, and his probies had to suffer because of it. I don't remember a single game where their best possible lineup was on field together, because they would either have to fill for Ted, or Vap, or sometimes even both. Losing Mets, who was incredibly active on EU after the trade from Tomeks team, due to NA drama which I assume influenced his motivation a lot, still put them in a decent spot considering they somehow grabbed wise man Blaster in midseason, and KDE would finally be eligible. Furthermore, I'd just like to note Unforgiven was also 1 game from eligibility same as Mets, so it just goes to show how having Owners capable of influencing attendance is actually a good thing, and I hope Tyrion learns from Tits in this regard (obviously you're drafting me next season, right dwarf?! just covering my bases, its not bm :mrgreen: )

First game was closer than scores suggest, and even great Kurt admitted as much in his post-game interview. Difference was well practiced and underdrafted KDE in comparison to completely rusty Kamito (even though first couple of periods he did very well). neX did what he could in defense, but Blaster-MLG was mostly left unchecked, and since his passing was a bit off to what we're used to seeing, they took advantage and secured the win. Going into second game TIT crew fell apart, and I would sum up their performance by saying it took Resteral 10 seconds of possesion time to put two goals in. Blaster outscored his captain this time around, and even my buddy Kurt got to show off his goal-horn.

If I would analyize Tyrions team, my main questions would revolve around Tyrions inability to motivate Mets and Unfo which I already discussed, but also, I would be very interested to hear what happened to their up&comer defender Gleb. Regardless of answer, I think its only natural Kurt rotated back to defense, which is key in their success this Sunday. Having him in more offensive role, surrounded by guys with no past EUDL participation left them exposed and weak, so him sacrificing for the team is exactly what differentiates good players from great (looking at you Lazor, or Vogin, to cover both sides of the spectrum). I'm also glad Riggys interviewed goes along the same lines, and TYR team admits they've not had a clear strategy and formation for most of the season. Depending on their practice/activity this week, semis vs Tomek could be very close. Elderduck has been so consistent in past couple of days, I expect overtimes or even shootouts.

That's it for now! I had to rush this because I have to leave home so without proof-reading some conclusions, it might be a little messy, and if anyone wants further clarifications I'd be more than happy to offer them later this evening.

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Re: PROBE hype!!!

Post by Solidifyer » Wed Apr 05, 2017 1:11 pm

handsumSnail wrote:Gryphon Riders vs Warsong Stickmasters


#BANsolid :lol: :mrgreen:


Smh snail... smh...
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Re: PROBE hype!!!

Post by Rigensis » Wed Apr 05, 2017 3:06 pm

Tit`s gambling ended up with a loss in the first probe series. Tho this gives us a lot of options in the main league.
handsumSnail wrote:should have put them in a really good position playoffs wise (because those 50 percenters are very strong in regards to their respective rounds), but struggling in regular season - borderline not qualifying. But it didn't happen, they finished in second. Well, fifth if you don't look at combined, but that would just be looking for excuses to redeem my preseason predictions.
I would say that it is better to have same line up for every Sunday - having the need to substitute missing player with some else was probably that little something we missed to win in regulation all those OT games we had.
Also due to attendance issues and probe league eligibility rules we had 4 people as goalkeepers in main team - and InLife has the best AVG save% from all. Only TYR team trumps that with 5 goalkeepers.
(PS it was tough sentence to decipher, also there is no redemption for you in the fact that we were 5th in main mainly because combined points are the important one and also we are 10 points ahead of 6th team in main league standings - but there my be a hope for your prediction in the fact that our points didnt came in easily)

About my push-back to you saying that tit`s probes over powered - I think it is a trap with big name zh players - their names overshadow their actual performance. For example - I have 2 goals in probes - same amount as Backfisch.
9/14 tit`s probe games ended with 2 or 1 goal difference. 1 game was technical win. 3 games ended with 4+ goal difference. And half of our probe goals were scored by forevergold.

If we would have had Me+neX+Forever+DustDevil on ice - it would be EZ road to Probe Win and to Main Win. Unfortunately EUDevil never happened, Forever wasnt here, I was illegible.

Discord did make community more active and people regained lost passion - we have 2 bot masters and 1 trivia master on our team. That helped with motivation.
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